Insights

From post to market

Posts from tracked accounts, and links people paste on the Submit page, are read by an AI model that drafts a question, rules and a data source. Code then checks the deadline, the data source and duplicates; a second AI pass checks the draft against the post; and a person reviews it before it is listed. Posts are only used to find predictions, never to decide a result.

Prices

Each market is a fixed-product market maker. The YES price is the crowd's probability: YES and NO always add up to 100¢. Winning shares pay 1.00 demo USD, losing shares 0, and a VOID (invalid) market pays 0.50 per share of either side.

Resolution

After the deadline, the resolver reads the source named in the rules and proposes the result onchain with its evidence and a bond. Anyone can dispute within 6 hours by posting the same bond; disputed markets are decided by the arbiter multisig. The rules' hash is stored onchain when the market opens, so they can't change.

Hit rate

Calls that resolved the KOL's way, divided by calls that resolved YES or NO. Void markets are shown separately and never count for or against. Always shown with the number of calls.

Edge

For each call, edge = outcome − p, where outcome is 1 if the KOL was right and 0 if wrong, and p is the crowd's time-weighted price of the KOL's side over the first 24 hours, starting from the first trade (the opening odds we set never count). Right on a call priced at 30¢ scores +0.70; wrong on one priced at 70¢ scores −0.70. A KOL's edge is the average, shown with n. A call counts only if at least 10 captcha-verified wallets traded it in its first 24 hours, so thin demo-money markets can't swing it.

Money

Everything is demo USD from the faucet. It has no value, can't be sent to other people and can't be cashed out.